It can be tough to gauge the current real estate market with all the sensational headlines out there. Riley‘s engineering background pushes Wilder Group Real Estate to take a data driven approach to the Central Oregon Real Estate market by analyzing the Central Oregon Real Estate Stats put out by COAR. With the Q4 stats just in, we’re able to review the data for 2022 and make a few predictions about 2023.
Central Oregon Market Stats
In 2022, we have seen an entire market slowdown in Deschutes County. The number of homes sold (under 1 acre) dropped 15%, going from 10,746 in 2021 to 9,118 in 2022. More interestingly, the slowdown accelerated as the year went on. The total homes sold in 2022 started up 4% in Q1 compared to 2021. When Q2 hit, we were down 10%, then 16% in Q3 and finally 20% in Q4 compared to 2021. The total drop in sales is much more stark than the meager fall in home prices which went down from a peak in Q3 of 2022 at $789,276, to $778,335 in Q4 of 2022, a 1.4% decrease.
Sunriver Market Stats
We have many clients in Sunriver and the average sales price did quite well over 2022. Sunriver saw a 14% average sales price increase over 2022 compared to a 1.2% increase in Bend. It’s important to note that Sunriver has significantly less sales than Bend, a few high dollar sales can skew the data. With that said, Sunriver has seen a 2.5% drop in average sales price from Q3 of 2022 to Q4 of 2022. In addition to this, the total homes sold went down nearly 33% going from 456 in 2021 to 343 in 2022.
Where Are We Headed
These are educated guesses based on our analysis of the Central Oregon Real Estate Stats. We believe in Q1 and Q2 of 2023 we will see the same trend we saw at the end of 2022. This translates to total homes sold being down compared to Q1 and Q2 of 2022. We believe the average sales price will drop across the board in Deschutes County. We anticipate a more significant drop in Sunriver of around 8% from the all time high in 2022 of $1,058,526. This will put the average sales price in Sunriver at around $980,000. We also anticipate days on the market to be much higher than in both 2021 and 2022, jumping to 40+ days. Increased days on the market will be the driving force for the decrease in the average sales price. This will be due to a larger, more stagnant inventory than we have seen in the past 2 years. If you’re a buyer, especially a cash buyer, the start of 2023 could be a good time to buy. Finally, we believe the market will stabilize in Q3 of 2023 and prices will start to climb back up slowly.
Stay tuned for the Central Oregon Real Estate Stats for Q1.